The tariffs won't happen.

Investment Letter • Aug 1, 2019 at 8:35 PM EDT

The tariffs on $300B of Chinese will never be implement, just like tariffs on Mexico were never implemented.

The tariffs on $300B of Chinese goods --actually, on US consumers and businesses--will never happen. The political money backing the Senators, who are allowing Trump to stay in power (by avoiding impeachment), will not allow it. It would hurt their businesses, and that is not allowed; tax-cuts are dandy, but making a whole host of items, that are not easily sourced from elsewhere, more expensive, would be disastrous, like tariffs on Mexico would have been disastrous. They simply cannot be implemented. Before the month is up, Trump will claim some sort of trade victory (significant of not) and the tariffs will be dropped.

Gold was on its way to breaking below 1400 and the SPX was on a tear higher before the Tweet. Soon, both markets will continue on the path they were on before 1 p.m.this afternoon.

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