The New Zealand Dollar Holds Near Its Lows While Business Confidence Jumps

New Zealand's firms are more upbeat and raising fewer prices, and the second half of that matters more for the Kiwi. NZD/USD trades just above 0.5600 after a fresh low beneath it, back near its November 2025 low.

A net 43% of firms expect business conditions to improve, up from 8%, in the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey released at 21:00 GMT on Monday. The same survey found their own trading flat to slightly weaker over the quarter.

Fewer firms raising prices is what a rate hike is for

The share of firms reporting higher costs fell to a net 47% from 54%, and fewer firms raised prices, which NZIER said lowers the risk of dearer fuel spreading into broader inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75% in September, its second hike since July. Traders have bet on a third on October 28.

Those bets are the main thing holding up the Kiwi against a firm US Dollar, and softer pricing in the survey weakens them. The RBNZ may still hike on October 28, although its own September rate track had October down as a pause.

RBNZ Governor Breman speaks after a month of bets on a hike she wouldn't promise

RBNZ Governor Breman speaks on Thursday, the only New Zealand event scheduled through Friday. New Zealand's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) follows on October 21, a week before the decision, and voters go to the polls on November 7.

The US calendar fills the gap, with private-sector jobs data on Tuesday at 12:15 GMT, Fed minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and jobless claims at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, forecast at 200K. Monday's survey was New Zealand's biggest release of the week, and it left NZD/USD near its low.

Levels around the Kiwi's new low

Resistance: Each of the last five sessions has peaked below the one before, and Monday's high came in just above 0.5600. No daily close since September 28 has come in above 0.5650.

Support: Monday's low, just under 0.5600, is back at the November 2025 low. 0.5550 is next, then 0.5500.

Bias: The setup tilts lower below 0.5650 on a closing basis, targeting 0.5550 first and 0.5500 after that. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has stayed under 20 since September 10 and reads near 9, so a bounce toward 0.5650 would still fit the short. A daily close above 0.5700 ends it.

NZD/USD daily chart