The Longer-Term
The last four recessions occurred close to yield curve inversions. This chart favors the economy and higher stock prices. Of course, there is more to the interest rate story, but let's get into that some other time.
This chart is looking healthy although the ECRI index is well off the highs.
Oil prices are important for the stock market, and the sideways movement over the last year has helped push stock prices up.
In other news, this is a chart I have my eye on. Are the gold miners headed higher or lower?
Based only on the moving averages in this chart, I would say GDX is going to go higher.
But the US Dollar has pulled back to a weekly uptrend line, and it looks like it could be ready to start to move higher again which would normally push GDX down.
So if I had to guess (just for fun), I think I would say GDX is going to move lower.. although that is just a guess and I have no special insight. Wait for a trend line break to tell us where it is headed.
Outlook
The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is up down as of March 21
The short-term trend is down as of March 21
I am looking into a better way to determine the short-term trend. Is the trend based on stock prices of the major indexes, or based on an index such as the PMO?
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