The Fed Meets Tomorrow; Everyone Is Watching

The Fed meets tomorrow…

But everyone is watching the wrong thing.

S&P is sitting near 7,200. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,700. The biggest tech earnings week of the year starts tomorrow. And the Federal Reserve is about to announce a rate decision that does not matter.

I spent today’s show explaining why.

The short version: the Fed is frozen.

It can’t cut or hike. Its balance sheet is shrinking.

But markets keep going up. How?

Because the Treasury took over. And nobody noticed.

Today’s Big Idea breaks down the six tools the Treasury uses to inject liquidity without the Fed lifting a finger. TGA drawdowns. Bill-heavy issuance. Volatility-targeting buybacks.

And the GENIUS Act, which could create $3 trillion in mandatory demand for government debt. That is more than QE1 and QE2 combined. No FOMC vote required.

What else you need to know:

GOOGL, MSFT, META, and AMZN report tomorrow.

AAPL Thursday. $16 trillion in combined market cap.

A quarter of the entire S&P. Goldman (GS) says hedge funds sold tech at the fastest pace in two years. UBS (UBS) says the bar is high and positioning is crowded. If they beat, the rally holds. If they miss, 30% of the index reprices at once.

Meanwhile, Iran floated a new Hormuz proposal through Pakistan. No deal

yet. Brent is still above $100. Powell’s FOMC decision lands tomorrow afternoon. No change expected. But this may be his last meeting as chair.

Kevin Warsh is coming, and he wants regime change.