Technical Market Report For September 12, 2026

The good news is:

• The market is oversold and seasonally has often had a bounce about now. 

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  Declining new highs imply narrowing leadership.

NY NH finished last week at its lowest level of the year.

The next chart is similar to the first chart except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NASDAQ data.  

OTC NH continued declining.  

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

NY HL Ratio also finished the week at its lowest level for the year.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it was calculated with NASDAQ data and the OTC is shown in blue while OTC HL Ratio is shown in red.

OTC HL Ratio declined into deeply negative territory.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). 

NY NL declined to its lowest level of the year.

The next chart is similar to the chart above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC NL continued its decline.  

The Positives

The market is oversold, and seasonally has bounced this week.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading prior to the 3rd Friday of September during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week; so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures..

Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of September.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2  -0.08%   1.31%   0.15%   0.91%   0.63%   2.93%

 1970-2   0.09%  -0.13%  -1.14%   0.20%   1.15%   0.18%

 1974-2   1.02%   0.84%   0.69%   2.41%   0.64%   5.60%

 1978-2   0.43%   0.21%   0.01%  -0.65%  -0.71%  -0.72%

 1982-2   0.24%   0.93%   0.93%   0.26%  -0.10%   2.25%

 Avg      0.34%   0.63%   0.13%   0.63%   0.32%   2.05%

 1986-2  -0.27%  -0.63%   0.94%   0.49%   0.24%   0.77%

 1990-2  -0.08%  -0.51%  -0.14%  -1.95%  -0.60%  -3.28%

 1994-2  -0.49%   0.77%   0.36%   1.31%  -0.10%   1.85%

 1998-2   1.47%   0.72%   0.73%  -2.58%   1.06%   1.40%

 2002-2  -1.20%  -1.25%  -0.62%  -2.85%   0.38%  -5.54%

 Avg     -0.11%  -0.18%   0.25%  -1.12%   0.20%  -0.96%

 2006-2   0.34%   1.96%   0.53%   0.05%   0.31%   3.19%

 2010-2   1.93%   0.18%   0.50%   0.08%   0.54%   3.23%

 2014-2  -1.07%   0.75%   0.21%   0.68%  -0.30%   0.28%

 2018-2  -1.43%   0.76%  -0.08%   0.98%  -0.51%  -0.27%

 2022-2   1.27%  -5.16%   0.74%  -1.43%  -0.90%  -5.47%

 Avg      0.21%  -0.30%   0.38%   0.07%  -0.17%   0.19%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg      0.15%   0.05%   0.25%  -0.14%   0.12%   0.43%

 Win%       53%     67%     73%     67%     53%     67%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg      0.11%   0.10%   0.04%   0.22%   0.18%   0.65%

 Win%       46%     56%     60%     65%     62%     60%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2   0.91%   0.51%   0.03%   0.54%   0.79%   2.79%

 1958-2   0.89%   0.80%  -0.04%  -0.51%   0.65%   1.79%

 1962-2   0.32%  -0.08%  -0.14%  -0.70%  -1.45%  -2.05%

 1966-2   2.12%   0.53%   1.03%   1.20%  -0.11%   4.77%

 1970-2  -0.55%  -0.87%   0.53%   0.61%   0.40%   0.13%

 1974-2   1.63%   1.69%   0.50%   3.50%   0.07%   7.39%

 1978-2   0.18%   0.01%  -0.61%  -1.17%  -0.93%  -2.52%

 1982-2   1.05%   0.70%   0.97%  -0.42%  -0.99%   1.32%

 Avg      0.89%   0.41%   0.49%   0.75%  -0.31%   2.22%

 1986-2   0.55%  -0.09%  -0.02%   0.27%  -0.04%   0.67%

 1990-2   0.30%   0.26%  -0.63%  -1.62%  -0.05%  -1.74%

 1994-2  -0.42%   0.28%   0.27%   1.28%  -0.76%   0.65%

 1998-2   2.04%   0.78%   0.75%  -2.54%   0.12%   1.14%

 2002-2   0.14%  -1.97%  -0.46%  -3.01%   0.25%  -5.05%

 Avg      0.52%  -0.15%  -0.02%  -1.12%  -0.10%  -0.87%

 2006-2   0.05%   1.04%   0.38%  -0.14%   0.27%   1.61%

 2010-2   1.11%  -0.07%   0.35%  -0.04%   0.08%   1.44%

 2014-2  -0.07%   0.75%   0.13%   0.49%  -0.05%   1.25%

 2018-2  -0.56%   0.54%   0.13%   0.78%  -0.04%   0.85%

 2022-2   1.06%  -4.32%   0.34%  -1.13%  -0.72%  -4.78%

 Avg      0.32%  -0.41%   0.27%  -0.01%  -0.09%   0.07%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022 

 Avg      0.60%   0.03%   0.20%  -0.14%  -0.14%   0.54%

 Win%       78%     67%     67%     44%     44%     72%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

 Avg      0.13%   0.05%   0.10%   0.17%   0.07%   0.52%

 Win%       55%     55%     64%     56%     52%     60%

Conclusion

Some breadth indicators on the NYSE finished last week at their lows of the year.  Seasonality for next week has been positive.  A rally for the SPX and OTC could take them to all time highs that would be unconfirmed by all of the breadth indicators.  We might have an exciting week next week.

The strongest sectors last week were Electronics and Telecom while the weakest were Basic Materials and Precious metals.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday September 18 than they were on Friday September 11.