Technical Market Report For September 5, 2026

The good news is:

• Hard to find. 

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  Declining new highs imply narrowing leadership.

NY NH continued declining from its already low level.  The index is 1% off its all time high and NY NH is near the low of the last price dip.

The next chart is similar to the first chart except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NASDAQ data.  

OTC NH also continued declining.  

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

NY HL Ratio fell back into negative territory.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it was calculated with NASDAQ data and the OTC is shown in blue while OTC HL Ratio is shown in red.

OTC HL Ratio also fell into negative territory.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). 

NY NL also declined resuming its pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

The next chart is similar to the chart above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC NL changed directions, moving downward last week.  

The Positives

Positives are scarce.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 4 trading prior to the 2nd Friday day of September during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week; so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for the coming week has been pretty weak.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of September.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.00%  -0.12%  -0.40%  -0.99%  -0.27%  -1.78%

 1970-2   0.00%   1.45%   1.99%  -0.24%  -0.26%   2.93%

 1974-2  -2.19%  -0.67%  -0.02%  -2.12%  -1.82%  -6.82%

 1978-2   0.00%   0.82%   0.23%   0.23%   0.93%   2.21%

 1982-2   0.00%  -0.64%   0.50%   0.54%  -0.16%   0.24%

 Avg     -2.19%   0.17%   0.46%  -0.52%  -0.32%  -0.65%

 1986-2  -1.47%  -0.87%  -0.74%  -3.67%  -1.86%  -8.61%

 1990-2   0.35%  -0.59%   0.22%  -1.09%  -0.47%  -1.57%

 1994-2   0.00%   0.03%   0.63%   0.66%  -0.72%   0.60%

 1998-2   0.00%   6.03%  -2.19%  -2.42%   3.55%   4.97%

 2002-2   0.72%   1.19%  -0.35%  -2.72%   0.92%  -0.25%

 Avg     -0.13%   1.16%  -0.49%  -1.85%   0.28%  -0.97%

 2006-2   0.00%   0.57%  -1.72%  -0.58%   0.49%  -1.24%

 2010-2   0.00%  -1.11%   0.90%   0.33%   0.28%   0.40%

 2014-2   0.20%  -0.87%   0.75%   0.12%  -0.53%  -0.33%

 2018-2   0.27%   0.61%  -0.23%   0.75%  -0.05%   1.36%

 2022-2   0.00%  -0.74%   2.14%   0.60%   2.11%   4.11%

 Avg      0.24%  -0.31%   0.37%   0.24%   0.46%   0.86%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.35%   0.34%   0.11%  -0.71%   0.14%  -0.25%

 Win%       67%     47%     53%     47%     40%     53%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg     -0.21%  -0.04%   0.01%   0.07%   0.06%   0.01%

 Win%       52%     51%     56%     63%     57%     59%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2   0.00%   0.52%   0.07%   0.16%   0.36%   1.11%

 1958-2   0.33%   0.69%  -0.31%   0.68%  -0.23%   1.17%

 1962-2   0.12%   0.24%   0.43%  -0.24%   0.32%   0.87%

 1966-2   0.00%  -0.59%  -0.81%  -0.38%   0.32%  -1.46%

 1970-2   0.00%   0.25%  -0.30%  -0.59%   0.27%  -0.37%

 1974-2  -2.38%  -0.69%  -1.00%  -2.68%  -2.26%  -9.01%

 1978-2   0.00%   0.78%   0.85%   0.04%   1.30%   2.97%

 1982-2   0.00%  -1.07%   0.68%  -0.19%  -0.82%  -1.39%

 Avg     -2.38%  -0.26%  -0.11%  -0.76%  -0.24%  -1.85%

 1986-2  -0.93%  -0.19%  -0.25%  -4.81%  -1.92%  -8.09%

 1990-2  -0.55%  -0.18%   0.47%  -1.21%  -0.57%  -2.04%

 1994-2   0.00%   0.18%  -0.18%   0.46%  -1.05%  -0.59%

 1998-2   0.00%   5.10%  -1.69%  -2.59%   2.95%   3.77%

 2002-2   1.01%   0.73%  -0.01%  -2.48%   0.33%  -0.42%

 Avg     -0.16%   1.13%  -0.33%  -2.12%  -0.05%  -1.48%

 2006-2   0.00%   0.17%  -0.99%  -0.48%   0.38%  -0.92%

 2010-2   0.00%  -1.15%   0.64%   0.48%   0.49%   0.47%

 2014-2  -0.31%  -0.65%   0.36%   0.09%  -0.60%  -1.11%

 2018-2   0.19%   0.37%   0.04%   0.53%   0.03%   1.16%

 2022-2   0.00%  -0.41%   1.83%   0.66%   1.53%   3.61%

 Avg     -0.06%  -0.33%   0.38%   0.26%   0.36%   0.64%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.31%   0.23%  -0.01%  -0.70%   0.05%  -0.57%

 Win%       50%     56%     50%     44%     61%     44%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

 Avg     -0.18%  -0.04%   0.03%  -0.12%   0.05%  -0.17%

 Win%       48%     52%     58%     49%     62%     52%

Conclusion

Last week the major indices all moved less than 1% from their close on the previous Friday.  New highs decreased and new lows increased while volume was practically non existent.

The strongest sectors last week were Energy (for the 4th week in a row) and Banks while the weakest were Internet (down from the top last week) and Leisure.

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday September 11 than they were on Friday September 4.

Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a little while the other major indices were up a little; so I am calling last week's negative forecast a tie.