Rising oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, increasing volatility, and selling pressure in technology stocks have raised important questions about the health of the stock market. Are these developments warning signs of a more serious decline, or are they part of the normal volatility investors should expect during a long-term bull market?
This week's video examines the good, the bad, and the ugly using objective evidence from the charts. We look at the sharp rise in crude oil, Treasury market volatility (MOVE Index (MOVE)), the VIX, high-yield corporate bonds, and changing leadership between energy, technology, growth stocks, and defensive sectors.
We also examine the bigger picture, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), NYSE Composite (NYA), semiconductor stocks, mega-cap growth stocks, and the S&P 500 (SPY) Advance-Decline Volume Line. Historical comparisons with 2018, 2022, and 2025 provide valuable perspective on how markets behave when risks begin to increase.
Are investors witnessing the early stages of a meaningful bearish shift, or does the weight of the evidence continue to favor the longer-term bullish case?
Rather than relying on headlines, forecasts, or assumptions, we examine what the charts are actually telling us about risk, market participation, sector rotation, and the sustainability of the current trend.
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