Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey interviewed Steve Penny, founder of SilverChartist.com, about precious metals investing, silver’s sharp correction, gold’s outlook, and strategies for navigating volatile markets. Penny described a plan that combines physical metals, mining stocks, and options trading, while keeping long-term holdings separate from shorter-term trades.
-From Air Force Rescue Pilot to SilverChartist Founder
Penny said the September 11, 2001, attacks first sparked his interest in central banking, fiat currency, debt, and geopolitics. The 2007–2008 financial crisis then accelerated his study of financial markets. He began reading extensively, describing self-education as one of his most valuable investments.
Penny, now 45, served 18 years as an Air Force rescue pilot. He left before reaching the 20-year mark that would have qualified him for a military pension, choosing instead to focus on SilverChartist, which he said had begun gaining traction.
At SilverChartist, Penny combines precious metals analysis with mining-stock investments and options strategies. He said his goal is to help investors pursue financial freedom while managing risk through a clear plan.
Why Penny Favors Gold, Silver and Hard Assets
Penny said he values gold and silver as honest money, but approaches them as a trader by looking for favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. He also sees potential in platinum and uranium over the next several years.
He cited persistent inflation, expanding debt, and the long-term loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies as key reasons for his positive outlook. In his view, gold and silver have historically responded to the expansion of debt-based money, making hard assets attractive in the current macroeconomic environment.
Penny cautioned that a bullish long-term view does not mean investors should ignore short-term market signals. He told Maharrey that he uses indicators including investor sentiment, the Commitments of Traders report, technical analysis, and near-term fundamental conditions.
Silver’s Correction and the 1970s Bull Market
Penny compared silver’s recent rally and pullback with the 1970s precious metals bull market. He said silver rose roughly 420% in the 27 months before its February 1974 interim peak. In the 27 months leading up to January’s peak, he said, silver had gained about 480%.
After its 1974 peak, silver traded sideways between roughly $4 and $6 for about five years, Penny noted. He believes today’s consolidation could similarly frustrate investors before another major advance. He pointed to silver’s 1979 rally, when the metal rose about eightfold in 12 months, as the kind of move he believes may still lie ahead.
Penny also emphasized a key difference between the eras: Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to approximately 16% to 17% in the early 1980s. Penny argued that comparable rates would be much harder to sustain with U.S. national debt near $40 trillion. With federal tax receipts around $5 trillion annually, he estimated that each 1 percentage-point increase in rates on $40 trillion of debt could add about $400 billion in interest expense.
Maharrey added that U.S. inflation had remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months. Both speakers discussed how inflation can reduce the real value of government debt, while Penny said the debt burden leaves policymakers with difficult outcomes rather than an easy solution.
Using Investment Buckets to Manage Volatility
Penny said he sent members a sell alert at $117 for silver and took major profits within days of the market peak. He acknowledged that selling was emotionally difficult because he believes silver could rise further over the long term.
His approach is to separate investments into distinct buckets. One holds physical precious metals as long-term, generational insurance. Another holds top-tier mining stocks that he intends to keep through volatility. A separate trading bucket allows him to sell when markets become overheated, even if his long-term outlook remains bullish.
Penny said this structure helps investors follow a plan instead of reacting to every alarming headline or rapid shift in market sentiment.
Gold Support, Eastern Demand and Market Manipulation
On gold, Penny said he had previously assigned a 75% to 80% chance that $3,900 gold would hold as a technical support level. At the time of the interview, he said that probability had fallen but remained above 50%. If gold broke below $3,900, he said short-term traders should be prepared for a possible brief move toward $3,500.
Maharrey asked about reports that Chinese buyers were supporting gold prices by purchasing dips, particularly during Asian trading hours. Penny said he had observed the pattern and believes price discovery may be shifting gradually from Western paper markets toward physical supply and demand in the East. He also noted that Shanghai futures had shown premiums of about $20 over COMEX during January’s run-up.
Penny argued that manipulation in precious metals markets can create lower buying opportunities. He said governments and financial institutions have attempted to influence gold and silver prices before, but such efforts have eventually failed. Investors, he suggested, can use periods of depressed prices to acquire metal at a discount.
Penny’s Long-Term Gold and Silver Outlook
Penny offered a long-term scenario based on the average return of two previous gold bull markets: the 1970s advance and the rally from 1999 to 2011. He said the average gain was approximately 15 times. If the current bull market began near $1,000 per ounce in January 2016 and matched that average, the price would reach about $15,000 per ounce.
Applying a 50-to-1 gold-to-silver ratio to that gold price would imply silver near $300 per ounce. Penny described these figures as a longer-term possibility over the next several years, not a near-term forecast.
He also argued that ratios can provide more useful long-term comparisons than dollar targets because the dollar’s purchasing power changes. He suggested tracking gold against measures such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the median U.S. home price. At the 1980 gold peak, he noted, gold and the Dow were both near 850, creating a roughly one-to-one ratio.
Silver Eagles, Low Premiums and Options Income
When Maharrey asked about his favorite bullion products, Penny said silver coins given to him by church members, including pieces featuring Bible verses, were personally meaningful. For dollar-cost averaging, he likes American Silver Eagles when premiums are low because of their wide recognition and the potential for premiums to rise.
For most buyers, however, Penny said the priority should be getting the most metal for the least money. He said generic silver rounds, including Buffalo rounds, can be suitable lower-premium choices.
Penny also described using put options to generate cash flow while waiting for prices to improve. As an example, he said he had collected $300 for agreeing to buy a silver-related investment at a lower price within roughly the next month.
Maharrey closed by highlighting SilverChartist’s community-based approach and its combination of market analysis, precious metals investing and options strategies.
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