SPY: Higher High in Seven?

SPX Monitoring purposes; long 7/23/21 (SPX) 4411.79

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long (GDX) on 10/9/20 at 40.78. 

Long Term SPX monitor purposes; Neutral

A week ago last Friday the 2 day TRIN closed at 3.36 which is a bullish sign short term. Yesterday the two day TRIN closed at 3.05 and another bullish short term sign. The SPY was up five days in a row going into last Monday and market is higher within five days 84% of the time. Yesterday marks the fifth day but some times it can take up to seven market days to make a higher high and it appears to be one of those times (SPY). CNN Fear Greed index today closed at 30 and suggests high fear and a bullish sign. Seasonality wise, going into a new month usually leans bullish.  Seasonality for August month leans bearish, so when the current rally ends the market may flip sideways. Still likely a new high in the market coming before the week is out. 

The second window up from the bottom is the “2 day average of the TRIN”.  We marked with red vertical lines the times when the “2 day TRIN” was above 1.50 (yesterday’s reading was 1.53) going back about a year.  Of the last 15 chases where the “2 day TRIN” was at or above 1.50, 13 (87%) cases, the rally started or continued at that point.  The two cases where rally did not start immediately (circled in red) a brief pull occurred after which the rallied started.

Above is a shorter term view of yesterday’s chart.  The bottom window is an 18 day average of the Advance/decline percent and next window up is the 18 day average of the Up Down volume percent; both indicators are for the GDX ETF.  Both indicators reached below -30 in late June and previous instances when this happen the market was near a significant low.  We notice in the past when both indicators remain above “0” (both currently are) the uptrend usually continues.  Looks good so far.