It’s been a complete round trip in the last month.
The September rate forecast is from CME Fedwatch.
Today: 66.2 percent
Week Ago: 39.6 percent
Month Ago: 67.0 percent
Welcome back to the reality that inflation is a problem.
October CME Probabilities
Two Hike Odds (September and October)
Today: 19.1 percent
Week Ago: 9.7 percent
Month Ago: 20.8 percent
That’s another round trip. But I doubt that.
An October 28 would be a hike would be just six days before the November 3 midterm elections.
The Fed will not want to hike that close to the election.
That fact was a key point in my assessment Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September
It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI.
Click on link for further discussion of what ties the Fed’s hands, forcing a hike.
Also see my post from earlier today, Global Bond Market Rout Continues, Fed’s Barr Ponders Decisive Action
Everything now ties neatly together for a September hike.
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