By political affiliation, sentiment declines the most for independents.
Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary October report, released today.
Preliminary Results for October 2026
Oct | Sep | Oct | M-M | Y-Y | |
2026 | 2026 | 2025 | Change | Change | |
Index of Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 53.6 | -3.7% | -13.6% |
Current Economic Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 58.6 | -12.2% | -23.7% |
Index of Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 50.3 | +2.2% | -6.0% |
Sentiment Key Points
Consumer sentiment 46.3 down from 48.1
Current conditions 44.7 a new record low down from 50.9
Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year.
Inflation Outlook
Year ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points
Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%, notably higher than their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%.
Inflation expectations over both time horizons increased for the second straight month to their highest readings since May.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
Sentiment Never Recovered After Covid
6-Year High Pre-Covid: 121.2
6-Year Low Pre-Covid: 100.8
6-Year High Post-Covid: 97.2
6-Year Low Post-Covid: 44.7
Notably, the 6-Year pre-Covid low is higher than the 6-Year post-Covid high.
The same is true with the three-month moving average of the overall index.
Inflation Expectations
One-Year and 5-Year Inflation Expectations
One-Year: 4.7 percent
Five-year: 3.5 percent
Partisan Sentiment Changes Since January 2026
-23 percent for Independents
-14 percent for Republicans
-9 percent for Democrats
Republicans and Independents expected more out of Trump and did not get it. This is a reflection on the war in Iran, tariffs, and inflation.
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