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The long-term trend of the S&P 500 market-cap weighted index is to the upside, as shown with an upward-sloping channel.
S&P 500 Index - Daily Chart
In contrast, its equal-weight version has not surpassed its March 2024 high and has been consolidating in a triangle formation.
S&P 500 EW Index - Daily Chart
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares U.S. economy recessions. Four of my labor market indicators hint that a recession, probably a mild one, is underway in the United States. Therefore, if the indicator signals prove to be correct, I expect the Committee to announce later this year that a recession began in May of 2024.
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