Revolving Consumer Credit Jumps Again in April, Up Nearly 20 Percent

Consumer Credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish

The Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Report shows consumer credit rose $38 billion in April following a revised $47.4 billion jump in March.

The Fed originally reported $52.4 billion for March. 

Consumer Credit 

Consumer Credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish

Revolving Consumer Credit 

Consumer Credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish

That amusing chart puts a bit of perspective on these huge percentage increases in revolving credit.

The numbers in green are months in which Congress handed out free money stimulus.

Revolving credit just now hit the pre-pandemic level. 

Q: Where's that alleged cash supporting consumption?
A: It went to pay down balances.

Consumer Burn Out?

Correcting as I misread initially as the old print of 1.3% when it's down to 0.9%

Average the first two quarters, you get to -0.5%

Now, tack on the mammoth 4-month $134.9B consumer credit growth through April

Finally, make the case US consumer won't burn out by the end of June https://t.co/Ejr0T5fjbV

— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) June 7, 2022

"Tack on the mammoth 4-month $134.9B consumer credit growth through April. Make the case US consumer won't burn out by the end of June."

Burn out by the end of June or already?

The Fed revised March lower by $5 billion. I anticipate more negative revisions.

US Balance of Trade Improves the Most on Record (Guess

Balance of Trade data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

For trade discussion, please see US Balance of Trade Improves the Most on Record (Guess What That Means). 

Target Warns Second Time of Weaker Profit, Bloated Inventories, and Slumping Demand

Target said inventory rose 43% as demand for outdoor furniture, small appliances and some electronics declined faster than expected.

Note that Target Warns Second Time of Weaker Profit, Bloated Inventories, and Slumping Demand

And weakness is not just in consumer goods.

New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

New home sales have peaked this cycle and the bottom is nowhere in sight.

For discussion, please see New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

Recession is immanent.