Real vs nominal advance retail sales in millions of dollars.
Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for May of 2026.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $763.7 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from May 2025.
Total sales for the March 2026 through May 2026 period were up 5.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2026 to April 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from April 2026, and up 7.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.2 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from May 2025.
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales
Real vs nominal advance retail sales percent change month over month
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Percent Change
Nominal Total: 0.9 percent
Real Total: 0.4 percent
Over half of the gain in May was inflation.
Real Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Advance Retail Sales Deflated by CPI 1982-1984=100
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
Total: 0.4 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles: 0.3 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.1 percent
Motor Vehicles: 0.7 percent
Food Stores: -0.5 percent
Nonstore Sales: 1.0 percent
Gas Stations: 2.9 percent
For nominal numbers, add 0.5 percentage points to the above numbers. Result may be off by 0.1 percentage points due to rounding.
May was strong led by nonstore sales and motor vehicles.
Excluding motor vehicles and gas, sales were only up 0.1 percent.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 228,669 That’s a decline of 5,682 or 2.0 percent.
In March of 2021, nominal sales were 603,581. They are now 763,707. That’s an increase of 153,504 or 26.5 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since March of 2021 is due to inflation.
Yet, I can guarantee there will be numerous comments from mainstream economic illiterates today about the “strong consumer”.
Oh, and didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Real vs nominal advance retail sales, percent change from a year ago.
Percent Change from Year Ago
Nominal retail sales year-over year are up 6.9 percent
Real retail sales year-over year are up 2.6 percent
Over 62 percent of the reported year-over-year retail sales is a mirage of inflation.
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