Variant Perception posted a couple of excellent charts on how rising rent and healthcare costs may impact consumer spending and related retail equities. Let’s tune in.
Retail Sales vs. Medical + Rental CPI Inverted
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Consumer Discretionary Equities vs. Medical + Rental CPI Inverted
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Key Points
- Whenever rental and medical costs have risen significantly in the past, they have led to a big decline in retail sales. Consumers will start cutting back spending on non-essential items in order to pay for medical care and housing.
- Retail stocks are highly correlated to the ups and downs of same-store retail sales. As you can see in the above chart, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector has fallen sharply when rental and medical costs have risen, notably in 2001-02 and 2008-09.
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