Retail Sales Flounder in May With Negative Revisions in April

Advance Retail Sales data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Advance Sales Notes

• Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $672.9 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent from the previous month, but 8.1 percent above May 2021. 
• Total sales for the March 2022 through May 2022 period were up 7.7 percentfrom the same period a year ago. 
• The March 2022 to April 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.9 percent to up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).  

The key words above are "but not for price changes." The chart represents nominal, not real (inflation-adjusted) numbers. It's real sales that will influence GDP. 

I have some "Real" charts below. First, here is a look at more nominal numbers.

Advance Retail Sales data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Advance Retail Sales Detail 

Advance Retail Sales data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Advance Retail Sales Major Categories 

Advance Retail Sales data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Declining Sales 

• Total
• Nonstore (e.g. Amazon)
• Motor Vehicles 

Advancing Sales 

• Food and Drinking
• Gasoline 
• Clothing
• Department Stores

Consumer Shift 

• Gasoline has the biggest jump in net month-over-month sales, by far.
• Food and Drinking had the second largest increase.
• Motor vehicles and parts had the biggest decline.
• Nonstore sales had the second biggest decline. 
• Consumers spent 4 percent more on gas and 0.7 percent more on food service.
• Consumers spent 1 percent less on nonstore sales, and 3.5 percent less on motor vehicles and parts. 
• Excluding motor vehicles and gas, sales were up a mere 0.1 percent in nominal terms.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales 

Data for both series downloaded from St. Louis Fed. Chart by Mish