Will the unexpected consumer spending weakness continue?
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Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
The Commerce Department reports Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services for December 2025.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2024.
Total sales for the 12 months of 2025 were up 3.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2024. Total sales for the October 2025 through December 2025 period were up 3.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2025 to November 2025 percent change was unrevised from up 0.6 (±0.3 percent).
Retail trade sales were virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) from November 2025, and up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 5.3 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 4.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from December 2024.
Sales Not Adjusted for Inflation
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
It’s real sales that impact GDP estimate.
Retail Sales Fizzle in December
Economists missed the retail sales estimate for December by a mile.
The Bloomberg consensus was for a 0.4 percent rise. Instead sales were flat. October sales had a huge negative revision from +0.6 percent to +0.0 percent.
Real, inflation-adjusted sales were negative for the month and from a year ago.
Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
- Nominal: 0.0 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.0 percent
- Food Service: -0.1 percent
- Food Stores: 0.2 percent
- Nonstore: 0.1 percent
- Gas Stations: 0.3 percent
- Motor Vehicles: -0.2 percent
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
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Real, Inflation-Adjusted Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Due to the government shutdown, there was no CPI data for October or November.
The CPI for December was +0.3 percent. With flat nominal sale, real sales were negative across the board.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
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Real and Nominal Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
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Real and Nominal Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Detail
The vaunted US consumer is nothing but a mirage of inflation.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Year-Over-Year
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Real and Nominal Advance Retail Sales Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Retail Sales Details
- Nominal Retail Sales: +2.4 percent
- Real Retail Sales: -0.2 percent
Key Question: Will the unexpected consumer spending weakness continue?
In general, pullbacks in consumer spending have not lasted long.
But this was not expected, especially the huge negative revision to October.
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