Polish Rates On Hold Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

By Adam Antoniak of ING Think

Economic and Financial Analysis • May 6, 2026 at 11:44 AM EDT

The National Bank of Poland held interest rates at 3.75% as rising core inflation and geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook.

The Monetary Policy Council kept the National Bank of Poland's rates unchanged in May, sticking to a wait‑and‑see approach. Inflation rose in April on higher core inflation, while geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. Rates are likely to stay on hold until at least July and potentially even until the end of the year

In line with our and the market's expectations, the National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate remains at 3.75%). The statement noted that “amidst a tense geopolitical situation, the outlook for global activity and inflation has worsened and continues to be subject to uncertainty." In the MPC’s view, annual GDP growth in 1Q26 has likely slowed. That is in line with our forecasts. It was also noted that inflation increased further in April.

The situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persisting. CPI inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in April from 3.0% in March, mainly due to higher core inflation. Inflation risks are increasing, but the tone of the statement appears balanced, reflecting the potentially negative impact of geopolitical developments on both inflation and economic growth. The Council remains in a wait‑and‑see mode, citing uncertainty over further geopolitical developments and their impact on the global and Polish economy.

The July inflation projection will be the first comprehensive attempt to quantify the impact of geopolitical risks on the economic situation in Poland. We expect interest rates to remain unchanged at least until then, with our baseline scenario assuming rates remain on hold until the end of the year.

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