Policy Uncertainty During The Shutdown: Elevated

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser.com
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Policy uncertainty is running high amid the government shutdown, with readings from the Baker-Bloom-Davis index showing elevated risk and delays in economic releases adding to market ambiguity.

Person Holding Blue and Clear Ballpoint Pen

Image Source: Pexels
 

Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
 

Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), EPU-trade (green, right scale). Light orange is Trump 2.0 administration; darker orange shading is shutdown. Source: policyuncertainty.com. 
 

Betting on the shutdown length is now at 34 days, taking us through November 3 for postponed releases (no idea on delays).

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