Our 2020 outlook and that of lots of other pundits failed to spot a great unknown risk to world economies, another virus outbreak in China. Or to quote Robert Burns, "the best made plans of mice and men gang oft agly." I am using men as a poet's way of describing humans of all genders and mice as his way of describing various other creatures which may harbor germs that hop over to people in markets where wild creatures are sold for food.
The reason for my failure is clear if you view the model portfolio, where two relatively obscure Chinese stocks were added early this year, pre-flu. One is in the drug business but not against viruses; the other is a high-flying electric carmaker matching a US millionaire's version in stock performance, but alas, short of cash and relying on existing Chinese customers to round up their friends who may be interested in buying too and driving the whole group--now in facemasks!--to the dealer's showroom.
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