Our stock market chart book for August 2026 covers where things stand as summer winds down: trend, volatility, rates, liquidity, earnings, and global markets in 66 exhibits.
Trend & Technicals
S&P 500 (SPY) at inflection points
S&P 500 — price, moving averages and momentum
CTA trend proxy — momentum signals and flip levels
S&P 500 — distance from the 200-day moving average
S&P 500 — annual returns and intra-year declines
S&P 500 — drawdown from all-time high
Breadth — equal-weight vs. cap-weight
Leadership — semiconductors vs. the S&P 500
Rotation — semiconductors vs. software
S&P 500 sectors — year-to-date total returns
Volatility & Positioning
Dispersion minus implied correlation — and the S&P 500
VIX term structure — 3-month minus spot
Event pricing — VIX1D minus VIX
Implied vs. realized — VIX minus 21-day realized volatility
Correlation — implied vs. realized
Dispersion — Cboe DSPX
Single-stock vs. index volatility — VIXEQ minus VIX
Rates & the Fed
Treasury yield curve — latest vs. 3 months and 1 year ago
Curve slope — 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield
The 10-year, decomposed — nominal, real and breakeven
Policy vs. the market — fed funds target and the 2-year
Real yields — the 10-year since 1982
Inflation expectations — the 10-year since 1982
The nominal 10-year, split — real yield vs. expected inflation
Real-yield-minus-inflation spread — and the S&P 500
Speed of the repricing — spread momentum vs. drawdowns
Real-yield surges and S&P 500 pullbacks — since 1982
The neutral-rate repricing — 5y5y forward real yield vs. the 30-year
Real rates vs. inflation expectations — forward real yield and the 30-year breakeven
The forward inflation curve — 1y1y, 2y2y and 5y5y breakevens
Rate expectations — 1-year rate, 1 year forward
Stock-bond correlation — six decades of regimes
Stock-bond correlation — the 60-day view
Money & Velocity
Money velocity and the 10-year — six decades together
Velocity's two engines — nominal growth vs. money growth
Income vs. bank money — the monthly velocity pulse
Bank-intermediation velocity — GDP per bank dollar
The crossing rule — inflation vs. the 10-year
Inflation's two engines — goods vs. services
Liquidity & Credit
Net liquidity and the S&P 500
Cumulative T-bill issuance and the S&P 500
Bitcoin (BTC.X) and net liquidity
High-yield bond breadth and the S&P 500
High-yield breadth — the 1-year view
Where the liquidity sits — reserves and reverse repo
Credit spreads — high yield and investment grade
Credit vs. equity — Oracle (ORCL)
Earnings & Valuation
S&P 500 valuation dashboard — current vs. history since 1999
S&P 500 — index-level forward estimates
S&P 500 — consensus earnings-per-share estimates
Earnings revisions breadth
S&P 500 dividend yield — three decades of history
10-year Treasury yield minus the S&P 500 dividend yield
Consensus EPS growth by sector — 2027 vs. 2026
Macro & Cross-Asset
Inflation — headline and core CPI
Inflation swaps — market-implied CPI
Oil and short-term inflation expectations
Oil and the 10-year yield
Gasoline and headline CPI
Unemployment and the yield curve
US dollar — DXY index
Dollar funding — JPY cross-currency basis and the S&P 500
FX matrix — year-to-date cross-rate moves
Asset-class returns — ranked by year
International
International equities — year-to-date returns
US vs. the world — relative performance
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