Momentum Signals Point To Continued Rally In Stocks And Gold

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 4/8/26 at 6782.81.  

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Long GDX at 75.76; 9/29/25

Momentum rules all indicators. Above is a momentum indicator; top window is the 5 period RSI for the SPY. We note with blue lines the times when the RSI 5 reached above 90 (strong momentum for SPY). Notice that most 5 RSI > 90 reading are when the SPY is coming off a low and usually there is more than one RSI >90 coming off a low. There is one outliner noted with red line back in July 2023; other than that an RSI 5 above 90 suggests more rally to come.  

TRIN closes above 1.20 shows there is panic in the market and panic only forms near lows. The bottom window is the 10 day TRIN which stands at 1.18.  The 10 day TRIN carries more weight than the 5 or 3 day TRIN as it carries a longer term frame. The above chart shows the times when the 10 day TRIN came during rallies and deleted the times when it came at lows.  We did this to show when the 10 day TRIN came during rallies the rally usually last another month if not longer (note with blue arrows). The red arrow show where the market just moved sideways for the next month. With the 10 TRIN still near 1.20 suggests no worth while high forming here. 

The middle window is the monthly HUI /gold ratio and top window is the RSI for this ratio. Recently, the monthly RSI of the HUI/Gold ratio reached above 70 and the last time that occurred was back in 2002 when a major rally was in the early stages for the gold stocks. This surge in the monthly RSI suggests “initiation of an uptrend” and means more rally to come in the coming months. Also notice that the monthly HUI/Gold ratio has been in a trading range from .1 to .2 for the last 13 years (shaded in pink).  In bull gold markets this ratio rises and should breakout of this trading range in the coming weeks. Next upside resistance on the monthly HUI/Gold ratio is the 2010 high near .40.  To get to .40 on the HUI/Gold ratio HUI would need to double from current level without gold moving from current levels. For short term we are expect a consolidation in gold stock and after the consolidation new high are expected. Long GDX 9/29/25 at 75.76.