Momentum Market

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 4/8/26 at 6782.81.  

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Long GDX at 75.76; 9/29/25

We are in a momentum market and why the above chart is important. Above is the daily SPY with its 5 period RSI in the top window. To confirm an uptrend in the market you would need a “Sign of Strength” (SOS).  An SOS can take the form of an advance/decline surge, volume surge and or price surge.  Above is a price surge.  A price surge is when the RSI (5) reaches above +90 that came off a recent low.  We noted lows in the market shaded in green.  Its helps to confirm an uptrend is beginning when an SOS prices surge coming off lows.  The more price surge coming off lows the better.  The last three lows had at least two SOS price surges (noted on chart); suggesting we may see another one near term.   Today’s RSI reached 85 and not far from 90.  Staying long the SPX (SPY).

The bottom window is the daily SPY/VIX and next higher window is the daily SPY.  Its common for the SPY/VIX ratio to lead the SPY.  Since mid April the SPY has moved higher and the SPY/VIX has also moved higher confirming the uptrend. Today the SPY/VIX hit a new high along with the SPY keeping the uptrend intact.  Last Thursday the SPY jumped above its previous highs with a “Sign of Strength” suggesting the previous highs is now support; which comes in near 715 SPY.

We are bullish on the bigger time frames for GDX, but a consolidation is due for the short term.  One of the reason that we expect little downside from current levels on GDX is the chart above.  Above is the daily Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio. We shaded in blue when this ratio fell below .30 (current reading is .17) and than noted with a blue dotted line where that corresponded with GDX price (bottom window).  This chart goes back to 2015 and in each case when the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio fell below .3 the market was near or at the low. Though the GDX could trade sideways for the next several weeks the downside is minimal.    Long GDX 9/29/25 at 75.76.