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From EIA (May 7, 2024):
Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024).
Note that the forecast is slightly above futures. See Chinn and Coibion (2014) on oil futures forecasting performance.
Here’s the gasoline forecast:
Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024).
For context, here’s regular gasoline prices (nominal, real) in the US:
Figure 1: Price of regular gasoline in $/gallon (blue), and in 2017$/gallon (tan). Relative price calculated by dividing gasoline price by core CPI; April core CPI based on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/8/2024. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA, BLS, via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
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