Core CPI Surprise And FOMC Odds

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin • Sep 12, 2026 at 12:45 AM EDT

Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding consensus estimates and sparking concerns over persistent inflation.

Core CPI m/m came in at +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus.

Figure 1: Core CPI month-on-month inflation (blue), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square). Source: BLS.

CME Fedwatch raised the odds of a 25 bps increase in the Fed funds rate from 72.4% to 86.5% (which is up from a week ago at 59.4%).

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