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GDP per capita, consumption per capita, disposable income per capita, unemployment, economic policy uncertainty, VIX, and Misery Index — plus median household income.

Figure 1: GDP per capita now (blue), and four years ago (tan), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA.

Figure 2: Consumption per capita now (blue), four years ago (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA.

Figure 3: Disposable personal income per capita now (blue), four years ago (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA.

Figure 4: Unemployment rate now (blue), four years ago (tan), in %. April observation is Bloomberg consensus. Source: BLS.

Figure 5: VIX now (blue), four years ago (tan). Source: CBOE via FRED.

Figure 6: Economic Policy Uncertainty index (blue), four years ago (tan). Source: Policyuncertainty.com via FRED.

Figure 7: Misery index now (blue), four years ago (tan), in %. April observation of unemployment is Bloomberg consensus, inflation is from Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 4/30/2024. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

I don’t have a time series for real median household income index, but I can compare the March 2024 value to February 2020 (which Motio research indicates is the likely peak) value of 115.8.

Source: Motio Research.

I’d say, by these measures, the answer is “yes”, even using median income.

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