Markets Face Reset As Oil Climbs And Earnings Begin

The peace talks with Iran seemed to have ended on a sour note, sending IG weekend oil prices higher by around 4% and the IG US Tech 100 lower by more than 1%. Clearly, the market was betting on a positive resolution to the war with the stocks up last week and oil prices down. That will now need to unwind some. The one thing we just do not know is what kind of messaging comes across at 7 AM on Monday morning about the great progress being made in talks, or any morning, or afternoon, or evening, or any day of the week.

If the war is not over, then, in theory, the entire gap created on April 8 should be filled, and the S&P 500 (SPY) should move back to around 6,620 over the course of this week, at a minimum. If the index gaps lower at the start of trading on Monday and fails to fill that gap, it would likely result in an island reversal top pattern on the intraday charts. There is little justification for the stock market to be trading at current levels if the conflict continues and oil prices remain at $100 or higher.

That would suggest there is a chance that some, if not all, of the sharp drop in oil is reversed, with WTI potentially moving back toward the $105 to $110 range. That would not be surprising. Straight-line declines like the one seen on the charts can at times be treated like gaps, and more recently, oil prices have shown a tendency to retrace those types of moves.

This week also marks the start of earnings season, and unless companies like JPMorgan (JPM), Taiwan Semi (TSM), and Netflix (NFLX) deliver exceptionally strong results, the options market is likely to be unforgiving in the post-earnings reaction.

All three stocks currently have positive gamma positioning, which means hedging flows will lead market makers to sell into strength. They also have positive delta positioning, so once earnings are released and implied volatility declines, market makers will likely be overhedged and have stock to sell.

At the same time, as implied volatility resets, out-of-the-money calls will see significant premium decay. Unless these companies deliver meaningful beats and provide very strong outlooks, they are likely to face notable upside headwinds. Additionally, max pain levels as of Friday are below current spot prices, another indication of potential downside pressure.

This is a generalization, but the setups across these names are similar heading into earnings. That may change as the week progresses, but when the majority of options positioning is bullish going into results, it does not necessarily mean stocks are poised to rise — in many cases, it suggests the opposite.