Market Pulse – Tuesday, Sept. 8

Macro and Geopolitics:

Middle East risk stays the dominant driver – a Houthi missile/drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait and Abha keeps oil underpinned, alongside lingering US–Iran tension 🛢️. The bigger story is the Yen: fresh BoJ tightening bets (fueled by hawkish comments from board member Hajime Takata) sent USD/JPY to a seven-month low, dragging the Dollar Index below 99.00 even as Fed rate-hike odds firmed to ~60% on last week's strong payrolls. US PPI and CPI later this week are the next big catalysts.

Forex

USD/JPY – ~153.50, seven-month low for the pair as BoJ hike bets build ahead of the September 18 meeting

EUR/USD – holding above 1.1600, upper end of its recent range on broad Dollar weakness

GBP/USD – firm below 1.3550 resistance

AUD/USD – above 0.7220, highest since mid-May on RBA hike bets, though capped by mixed China trade data

Commodities

• Gold – ~$4,410–4,430, edging higher and eyeing $4,450, supported by USD softness but capped by hawkish Fed pricing

• Silver – ~$66–67, holding firm

• WTI – ~$92/bbl, Brent – ~$97/bbl, both underpinned by the Middle East risk premium

Asian Markets

🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 – roughly flat (+0.07%), Yen strength capping upside

🇰🇷 Kospi – up almost 2%, tech-led

🇨🇳 CSI 300/Hang Seng – mixed after China trade data showed exports on target but a miss on imports

🇦🇺 ASX 200 – softer, weighed by a six-year low in NAB business conditions

Crypto

Bitcoin – ~$78,800, down about 1.2% on the day as Fed hike odds near 60% pressure risk assets; support sits near $77,000–78,700, with $80,000 the level to reclaim