Market Pulse - Monday, Sept. 28

Iran Risk and Fed Hike Odds Dominate

Oil is the story: Brent jumped to ~$106.1–106.5 (+1.5–2.1%) after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to de-escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure adding to supply fears. That's pushing Treasury yields higher (30-year near 5.52%, up 27bp this month) on top of rising odds (~70%) of another Fed hike on October 28 following last week's 25bp move. Gold is taking the hit, breaking below $4,200.

Asia Session

Nikkei 225 – opened higher, gains pared back to little changed

KOSPI – down ~2.4%, tech-led selling

Shanghai Composite – down 1.4%, now off more than 5% for September

Asia-Pacific/Hang Seng – broader regional gauge down ~0.6%

BoJ policy meeting minutes released overnight

Key Levels

XAU/USD (Gold) – $4,197, down 2.04% today, below the $4,200 handle

Brent – ~$106, up on Middle East risk premium

EUR/USD – 1.1386, holding just under Friday's close as the dollar firms

Today's Calendar (GMT+3)

02:50 🇯🇵 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

13:00 🇬🇧 MPC Member Ramsden speaks

15:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman speaks

16:30 🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde speaks

17:30 🇺🇸 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

20:25 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Cook speaks

20:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Barkin speaks