Market Overview
The bond market took control last week. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.23% on Thursday, its highest level in 19 years, and closed Friday at 5.17%, as odds of a second Federal Reserve hike on October 28 climbed to roughly 70% after the FOMC's 25 basis point increase to 3.75%–4.00%. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials, including Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, and a stronger flash manufacturing PMI pushed the dollar index to 101.40, its highest since late July, and sent gold and silver lower. Brent swung between $97 and $108 as the East–West pipeline in Saudi Arabia stayed offline while US–Iran talks on a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz cut the risk premium on Friday. Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027, and Bitcoin rallied to $87,000 on Monday on spot ETF inflows before consolidating.
Closing Prices, Friday, September 25, 2026:
EUR/USD: 1.1391
Brent Crude: $104.45
Gold (XAU/USD): $4,320.50
Silver (XAG/USD): $64.71
Bitcoin: $83,888
Ethereum: $2,685
EUR/USD
Status: Closed at 1.1391 (previous week 1.1484; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell)
The euro lost about 0.8% and posted a third straight weekly decline, falling to 1.1359 on Thursday, the lowest level since late July, as US yields surged and the dollar strengthened across the board. The pair recovered only modestly on Friday, and the 52-week low at 1.1325 is now within reach.
Resistance Levels: 1.1412, 1.1450, 1.1500
Support Levels: 1.1360, 1.1325, 1.1300
Baseline View: Bearish while the pair trades below 1.1450. A break under 1.1360 opens the 52-week low at 1.1325 and then 1.1300; a soft US PCE reading or weak jobs data could trigger a short-covering bounce toward 1.1500, which would likely attract sellers. Base case range: 1.1300–1.1500.
Brent Crude Oil
Status: Closed at $104.45 (previous week $103.87; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy)
Brent hit $108.23 on Thursday and fell 2% on Friday after reports that US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran floated reopening it within seven days in exchange for sanctions relief. Supply risks remain: the East–West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels per day to Yanbu, has been offline since the September 10 drone strikes, and Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. The Brent–WTI spread widened to about $12, the largest since May.
Resistance Levels: $106.60, $108.25, $110.00
Support Levels: $103.00, $100.00, $97.35
Baseline View: Headline-driven with two-way risk. Progress on a Hormuz deal would pull Brent toward $100 and below, while failed talks or new attacks on Saudi infrastructure would restore the risk premium and put $108–$110 back in play. Base case range: $97–$110.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Status: Closed at $4,320.50 (previous week $4,341.30; 52-week range $3,734.58–$5,595.46; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Neutral)
Gold edged about 0.5% lower on the week. It fell as low as roughly $4,245 and traded below $4,300 as the 10-year yield reached a 19-year high and rate-hike expectations rose, before recovering above $4,300 into the close. Central bank buying and currency-debasement concerns continue to provide a floor, while rising real yields cap rallies.
Resistance Levels: $4,350, $4,400, $4,450
Support Levels: $4,300, $4,245, $4,200
Baseline View: Range-bound between $4,300 and $4,450 with a downside tilt while yields stay high. A hot PCE print or strong payrolls would raise October hike odds and risk a break below $4,300 and a retest of $4,245, while softer data could send gold back toward $4,400–$4,450. Base case range: $4,200–$4,450.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Status: Closed at $64.71 (previous week $66.26; 52-week range $45.54–$121.67; daily: Strong Sell, weekly: Buy)
Silver fell about 2.3%, underperforming gold, after reversing from a weekly high near $67.56 on Tuesday and dropping to about $63.07. It recovered part of the losses into the close, but higher yields and a firmer dollar kept it below the previous week's close, though the weekly technical rating remains positive.
Resistance Levels: $65.10, $66.00, $67.50
Support Levels: $64.00, $63.00, $62.00
Baseline View: Cautious short term. A close below $63.00 exposes $62.00 and lower, while a move above $65.10 would be the first sign that selling is easing. Base case range: $62.00–$67.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Status: Closed at $83,888 (previous week $80,882; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy)
Bitcoin gained about 3.7%, jumping to $87,363 on Monday before profit-taking brought it back to a weekly low of $82,957 on Thursday, and it settled near $83,900 into the weekend. Spot ETFs attracted about $2.8 billion over a six-day streak, but daily inflows fell from $999 million on Monday to $191 million on Thursday, a sign that institutional demand is cooling.
Resistance Levels: $85,250, $87,400, $90,000
Support Levels: $83,000, $81,000, $80,000
Baseline View: Constructive but sensitive to yields and ETF flows. Holding $83,000 keeps a retest of $87,400 in view, while a close below $81,000 would suggest the rally has run out of momentum and open a return to $80,000. Base case range: $80,000–$88,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Status: Closed at $2,685 (previous week $2,612; 52-week range $1,507–$4,753; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy)
Ether rose about 2.8%, peaked at $2,805 on Monday and slipped below $2,700 on Thursday as longs were liquidated, with roughly $98 million in long positions flushed in one day. Open interest has grown faster than network activity, which leaves the rally exposed to further deleveraging.
Resistance Levels: $2,790, $2,895, $3,000
Support Levels: $2,630, $2,550, $2,430
Baseline View: Positive but stretched. Holding above $2,630 favors another attempt at $2,790–$2,895, while a break under $2,550 would target the 50-day average area near $2,430. Base case range: $2,430–$2,900.
Key Calendar Events (September 28 – October 2)
Monday: Bank of Japan minutes, China industrial profits, speeches from ECB President Lagarde and Fed's Barkin
Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia decision, US JOLTS job openings (August), Eurozone economic sentiment, Fed speakers including Goolsbee and Williams, ECB speakers
Wednesday: US PCE price index (August) and final Q2 GDP, inflation data from Germany, France and Italy, China NBS manufacturing PMI, Fed speakers including Cook and Kashkari
Thursday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (September), US jobless claims, Japan Tankan survey, Swiss CPI, ECB and Fed speakers including Lagarde, Schnabel and Logan
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (September), Eurozone flash HICP inflation, Tokyo CPI
Unscheduled Risk: US–Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the pace of East–West pipeline repairs remain the primary wildcards.
Conclusion
With the Fed already tightening and markets pricing about a 70% chance of another hike on October 28, the week's two heavy US releases, the August PCE inflation report on Wednesday and September Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, will decide whether the 10-year yield extends beyond 5.2% and whether the dollar holds its two-month highs. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, a busy schedule of central bank speeches and the RBA decision on Tuesday add further volatility, while Iran headlines remain the main driver for Brent. Bitcoin and Ether need sustained ETF inflows to keep their gains.
Summary Price Targets:
EUR/USD at 1.1391: base case 1.1300–1.1500
Brent at $104.45: base case $97–$110
Gold at $4,320.50: base case $4,200–$4,450
Silver at $64.71: base case $62.00–$67.50
Bitcoin at $83,888: base case $80,000–$88,000
Ethereum at $2,685: base case $2,430–$2,900
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