Market Briefing For Monday, Aug. 17, 2026

While the S&P 500 stalls during summer doldrums, drone tech leaders like Unusual are diverging with strong gains. Focus on accumulating defense sector winners on dips rather than chasing rallies.

'Shifting fortunes of the market' generally flowing with projections; boring and miserable to try to figure out the S&P or similar macro August moves as the 'Dog Days of Summer' reach the height of avoidance.. concurrently with the expectation of unique actions related to 'winners and losers' in drone tech.

So it's a treadmill for S&P; but certainly not for favored new-era tickers; those in my opinion needed to be bought or accumulated during periods of weakness; not chased on strength as too many seem to be tempted to do. Fine by us as we want to see higher prices; but again hold what we bought when it seemed boring to do so (without fundamental deteriorations) and added on dips. This was the case over the last two months, not just days or hours; for Ondas (ONDS) and Draganfly (DPRO) and Kopin (KOPN) and Syntec Optics (OPTX) and even Unusual Machines (UMAC).

Market X-ray: I won't delve in nonsense droning chatter about conventional sectors; and know the media pundits and reporters are being forced to depart calling drone leaders 'memes' or whatever, as they're diverging just a bit from data-center hyper-scalers or big-pharma, banks or Oil to talk about... drones.

For new readers here: 'Global Defense', security and drones generally was a call over a year ago as a 2026 focus; that's as we sold (most not quite all of 4) Quantum Computing plays; keeping primarily D-Wave (QBTS) and moved to drones; and made Ondas our '2026 pick of the year last August at 3'. (This is important, not to crow; but because being a volatile swinging ticker at this point well-known, it's a lot different for those of us 'in' for a year or more to just hold our core positions and maybe play around a little for the swinging.)

In the new week; barring surprises; you could push 40 or higher in UMAC; I think 10 or higher for ONDS; with resistance as there are 'close bull' types still actively trying to restrain it. Reminiscent perhaps of Palantir (PLTR) in but again stay tuned. We do not chase; we are investors and yes, have added to holdings on dips but not rallies. Other will likely vary; we think DPRO will be bid up 'better' if they come forth with specifics for manufacturing in the USA; and so forth; or get a substantive contract from Canadian military; as may be in the offing. At the same time OPTX and others are doing all right; unclear if they are all clear of the starting gate, but I think those two are; maybe even KOPN.

Stay cool; going forward, providing no military action or weekend crisis; we ought to hover; maybe dip to start; then see renewed upside ... especially in new-era (counter-drone related) tickers; almost regardless of S&P, as long as it remains relatively tame during these fairly traditional 'Dog Days of Summer'.  

Bottom line: 'dog days of Summer' starting to be more realistically felt, by the broader market, with the (welcomed) exception of most 'drone-related' tickers.

While some faded from initial thrusts, or were impacted by weekly Expiration; the overall drone news we broke Thursday evening (before media picked it up Friday regarding the drone tariffs and so on) is very constructive. In fact our UMAC was about the best gain anywhere, percentage-wise; so sure, we're pleased.

Next week (providing we get through another military weekend unscathed) is likely to have a mixed start, then try to move higher ... but this is doldrums time, much as expected, and I would be entirely skipping many daily reports if not for the anticipated contract-drone-military news this month and next unrelated to the macro S&P behavior; provided it remains contained or range-bound. It's also so blazing hot in most of the world; and travel tricky with heat and issues of various types (I have had two separate friends moan about smoke even when not in fire zones; one sent a note about it from Portugal and another Greece).

Stay cool (as I will try).

Gene

Disclosure:

This is an excerpt from Gene's Daily Briefing (distributed nightly), which typically includes videos as well as more charts and analysis.

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