This week’s video asks whether market breadth and interest rates are approaching a bearish tipping point for stocks—or whether the recent concerns still fit within the normal volatility of an ongoing bull market.
We examine the latest evidence from the NYSE McClellan Summation Index, common-stock new highs vs. new lows, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line, Treasury-market volatility, the MOVE Index, the 10-year Treasury yield, the yen carry trade, and the VIX. We also compare the current environment with prior periods of meaningful market stress, including 2022, while looking for similarities and important differences.
On the equity side, we review semiconductors, AI and technology relative strength, mega-cap growth vs. the equal-weight S&P 500, defensive consumer staples vs. technology, and short-term Treasury bills vs. large-cap growth. Are investors beginning to shift toward defense, or does the broader weight of evidence continue to tell a different story?
Markets can change quickly, which makes it essential to maintain realistic expectations and an open mind 100% of the time.
Video Length: 00:38:28
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