Key events in EMEA next week - Saturday, July 16

Look out for Russia’s central bank key rate announcement following upward price pressure on both the demand and supply side.

Look out for Russia’s central bank key rate announcement following upward price pressure on both the demand and supply side. In Poland, employment, wage, and retail sales figures are expected to improve.

Source: Shutterstock

Stay up to date with all of ING’s latest economic and financial analysis.

Russia: Higher than expected CPI likely to prompt rate hikes

The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy announcement will be the key focus of the week. The string of higher than expected CPI and economic activity data leaves little room for guesswork in terms of a coming rate hike, and we believe the most likely outcome is a 75-100bp hike to 6.25-6.50%, at the upper border of the previously guided 25-100 bp range. We also continue to believe that the hike will not be the last in the cycle, with the medium terminal rate likely to find itself in the 6.75-7.00% range. Near-term hawkishness should be supported by supply-side constraints in the labor market and continued cost inflation at the producer level as well as elevated credit demand in the economy. On the other hand, some easing in food prices, the reopening of outward tourism to popular destinations, and uncertainty regarding economic growth beyond the post-Covid recovery may gain importance in the medium term. The Bank of Russia’s commentary may add some color to its list of priorities.

Poland: Strong employment and wage growth figures expected from the corporate sector

The coming week in Poland will start with figures from the corporate sector. We estimate that in June, as in May, firms increased employment on a monthly basis, as the economy reopened. As a result, annual employment growth should stabilize at 2.7% despite a less favorable reference base than in May. In our view, wage growth in June slowed to 8.0% year-on-year from 10.1% in May. The market consensus estimates that employment grew by 2.7% and wages by 9.5%. As for industrial production, the low base from last year is slowly fading. Therefore, we expect some deterioration in industrial production growth to 20.0% YoY from 29.8% in May (the consensus is at +19.0%). Our slightly higher forecast compared to the consensus is supported by the record-high PMI reading. Retail sales should continue to benefit from the reopening effect. It's hard to imagine that the seasonally adjusted month-on-month sales growth will remain as high as in May. However, in our view, it should be strong enough to generate 11% YoY growth after 13.9% growth in May (the consensus is at + 8.4%).

EMEA Economic Calendar

Source: Refinitiv, ING, *GMT

Comments