Italian Confidence Data Signals A Decent Start To The Third Quarter

The improvement in Italy's latest confidence data is broad-based, with the construction sector the only outlier. So far, the economy has proved resilient to geopolitical conflict and energy shocks. Should this be confirmed throughout the summer, average GDP growth for 2026 will likely be higher than our current 0.8% base case forecast

We've seen that the Italian economy proved relatively resilient to external shocks over the second quarter, posting decent 0.2% quarterly GDP growth. Friday’s confidence release provides the first insight into developments over the third quarter. According to the data, this seems like a good start. The improvement in confidence reported by Istat is broad-based, involving consumers and businesses alike – except for the construction sector, where confidence fell markedly.

Consumer confidence rebounded soundly

Consumer confidence was up almost two points, reaching its highest level since February. Consumers are more concerned about the current and future economic situation and consistently report declining concerns about future unemployment. The reported opportunity to save remains at a relatively high level, and intentions to purchase durable goods show a modest improvement. The ongoing erosion of purchasing power as inflation outpaces wages is still biting, but stabilising employment might act as a hedge. We still believe that consumption decelerated over the second quarter, but the final data might prove that the decline was less severe than expected.

Business confidence improved across the spectrum, except for construction

The business front also brings good news. Confidence gained a full point among manufacturers, service providers and retailers. The brightest spot is manufacturing, where confidence reached the highest reading since June 2023, driven by improving orders and growing production expectations.

Within the services domain, the improvement was more notable for information and communication, as well as transport and storage, with solid gains in the current conditions indicators and in orders. Meanwhile, confidence deteriorated in tourism activities – possibly the most exposed category to the side effects of the war in the Middle East.

The construction sector represents the exception. Here, confidence fell almost five points, reaching the lowest level since February 2021. However, the sharp differences among subsectors – illustrated by a sharp decline in specialised works outweighing gains in confidence in residential construction and infrastructural works – are hard to reconcile. We continue to believe that the infrastructural push is tied to the completion of projects under the EU-funded recovery plan. As far as rising confidence in the residential component is concerned, this might reflect the recent approval by the Italian government of the so-called “housing plan” designed to recover unused buildings, which will take time to implement.

Risks to our 0.8% GDP forecast for 2026 now tilted to the upside

Trying to translate confidence signals into GDP growth implications is becoming increasingly difficult. Preliminary GDP data for the second quarter, released yesterday by Istat, was quite telling in this respect. Confidence data had pointed to relative weakness in the service sector and resilience in manufacturing; the sketchy communiqué accompanying the quarterly national accounts release indicated, however, that the reverse could be true, with value added rising in services and contracting in manufacturing. An extra pinch of salt should therefore be taken when inferring from the July confidence release what GDP growth could look like in the third quarter.

Having said that, the main takeaway from today’s confidence data is that the third quarter appears to be starting on a sound footing, notwithstanding lingering geopolitical and energy-related uncertainties. Our base case for 2026 GDP growth is currently 0.8%, which coincides with the statistical carryover following the second-quarter GDP release. Barring a sustained re-escalation and broadening of the conflict, risks to our forecast are now tilted to the upside.