
Production up, imports up, exports up, prices up, employment still contracting.

ISM table and related comments by permission of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Please consider the May 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report
The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 54 percent in May, 1.3 percentage points higher than in April and its highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 19th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)
The New Orders Index expanded for the fifth consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 56.8 percent, up 2.7 percentage points compared to April’s figure of 54.1 percent. The May reading of the Production Index (54.3 percent) is 0.9 percentage point higher than April’s reading of 53.4 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 82.1 percent, a 2.5-percentage point decrease from April’s reading of 84.6 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 52.2 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the 51.4 percent recorded in April. The Employment Index registered 48.6 percent, up 2.2 percentage points from April’s figure of 46.4 percent,” says Spence.
Key ISM Points
New Orders Growing
Production Growing
Employment Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing
Imports Growing, Exports Growing
Respondent Comments (Emphasis Mine)
“Impact of Iran conflict starting to directly and negatively impact cost of supply chain. Oil and related commodities are escalating in price.” [Transportation Equipment]
“The Middle East conflict is triggering shipment delays and uncertainties. Elevated gas prices and inflation will surely impact our purchases. However, over the last quarter, we’ve seen increased demand that was unexpected.” [Machinery]
“As with all companies, we have felt the effects of fuel-related inflation and general market uncertainty due to overall economic variability and geopolitical events that have impacted such markets as construction, automotive and agriculture, as well as the general industrial sector.” [Chemical Products]
“Continuing trends of 15-percent sales increase in April, cost increases on a majority of raw materials, and fuel charges on many inbound and outbound deliveries. We remain cautiously optimistic that if global economic factors stabilize and the Iran conflict ends, we can continue with increased sales and maintain acceptable margins.” [Chemical Products]
“Cost of diesel is having huge impacts on our profitability. Confusion abounds around tariff refunds. We purchase many imported goods but in most cases are not the importer of record, so it is currently unclear to what we may be entitled.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
“Prices continue to rise for many products — some due to increase in data center creation for electronic components, others as a result of the Iran war and reductions in availability of oil/petroleum.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
“Supply constraints continue to propagate and are a key headwind to supporting increased aerospace and defense demand. Semiconductors, critical minerals and certain types of raw materials are illustrative examples of sales plans at risk. Corporate risk mitigation actions are underway to secure supply in the midst of constraints.” [Transportation Equipment]
“The current atmosphere is one of extreme uncertainty and concern for the future in terms of both price stability and longer-term supply continuity related to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. We have a lot of negotiations in process related to requested price increases, some related to oil prices and some still fallout from the 2025 tariff/geopolitical climate.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
“Continued dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) volatility, increased gas prices and tariffs are causing long lead constraints and price hikes that customers are not willing to bear. Panic is starting within our industry.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
“Business appears to be weakening — uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, rising energy prices and customers unwilling to commit to expenditures beyond a very short term.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
The top two concerns are prices and extreme uncertainty.
ISM Reported Input Prices

Prices Paid
February: 45.4% Higher, 4.4% Lower
March: 59.4% Higher, 2.8% Lower
April: 70.3% Higher, 1.2% Lower
May, 66.3% Higher, 2.2% Lower
Prices were accelerating higher even before the war in Iran.
ISM Reported Imports

Imports are growing slowly.
ISM New Export Orders

New export orders are barely growing. Imports are rising faster.
ISM Reported Employment

Net employment improved in May with 17 percent reporting increased headcount while only 15.4 percent reported reduced headcount.
However, the index level remains in contraction. The employment index has been negative for 32 consecutive months.
May ISM Synopsis
We have improved production levels. And new export orders flipped into positive territory.
However, employment is problematic, and the prices paid index is very problematic.
Manufacturers will pass on these price hikes.
Related Posts
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Inflation in April was another scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
May 13, 2026: Producer Price Index PPI Surges 1.4 Percent in April, Fed Behind the Curve?
The PPI numbers exceeded the highest estimate of every economist surveyed.
May 28, 2026: PCE Inflation Spikes Again, Year-Over-Year Highest Since May 2023
Year-over-year PCE inflation jumped to 3.8 percent. The Fed wants 2.0 percent.
June 1, 2026: Exxon Warns of $150 Crude. Here are the Supporting Charts
Global observed crude levels are at record low levels. Implications are ominous.
Is it any wonder the ISM is reporting higher prices paid?




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