Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation At 2.6%

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser.com
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Core PCE now-cast hit 2.9%, showing inflation remains sticky and above target, adding uncertainty to Fed rate-cut expectations.

Board, Blackboard, Economy, Inflation, Money

Image Source: Pixabay
 

Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
 

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), supercore CPI (green), all in decimal form %. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023).Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.
 

So y/y core PCE inflation is 0.2 percentage points above target rate of 2%, while instantaneous is 0.6 percentage points. Cleveland Fed nowcast of today indicates 2.9% instantaneous inflation rate for October.

More By This Author:

Confidence Down In November, (Preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up In December
Business Cycle Indicators: Series At Or Below Prior Peak
National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) On Toilet Paper?

More from this Author

Have We Really Been In Recession Since 2022? Antoni & St. Onge Revisited

Have We Really Been In Recession Since 2022? Antoni & St. Onge Revisited

Menzie Chinn •
Why We Pay Attention To Personal Income Ex-Transfers (And Why We Wait For Revisions)

Why We Pay Attention To Personal Income Ex-Transfers (And Why We Wait For Revisions)

Menzie Chinn •
US Ag Prospects

US Ag Prospects

Menzie Chinn •

Comments

Back to all articles