Image Source: Pixabay
 

Not literally, but on wood pulp used for TP? Implicitly, SecTreas Bessent is suggesting that if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.

“We can recreate the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the—I think they’re called 122s,” he said, referring to three separate statutory authorities governing trade actions.

Well, I don’t think market access arguments (Sec 301) are going to work for wood pulp. Pretty sure wood pulp imports are not a basis for a balance of payments problem (Sec 122) — not that we have a balance of payments problem as far as I can tell. So Sec 232 it is! Wood pulp joins bathroom vanities as a national security trade issue.

Probabilities of a Supreme Court decision against the IEEPA tariffs? 77% as of 1pm CT.
 

Source: Kalshi, access 12/4/2025, 1pm CT.

Polymarket has the corresponding probabilty at 72%.

See Wolff/PIIE for more.

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