Inflation Has Been Above The Fed’s Target For 5 Straight Years

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has been above 2 percent since March of 2021.

CPI and PCE Year-Over-Year Percent Change

• CPI: 2.4 percent

• CPI Less Food and Energy: 2.5 percent

• PCE: 2.8 percent

• PCE Less Food and Energy: 3.0 percent

The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent. All four measures have been above 2.0 percent since March of 2021, 59 straight months.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is PCE less food and energy. That’s currently the highest measure of the lot at 3.0 percent.

Every measure above is nearly certain to jump for the next two months due to war-related price increases on oil, gasoline, jet fuel, fertilizer, aluminum, and other commodities.

That’s not all. Trump’s attempts to get around the Supreme Court’s striking of his reciprocal tariffs rates to be more damaging than the reciprocal tariffs themselves.

Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022

On April 7, I commented Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022

The Cleveland Fed updated the numbers today, but they are little changed. For March, the CPI forecast is 0.84 percent (no change), the PCE forecast is 0.62 percent, up from 0.61 percent.

Those are very hot readings that directly impact year-over-year numbers.

Real Personal Income Declines in February

Earlier today, I commented Real Personal Income Declines in February, You Lost Money to Inflation

Personal Income and Real Personal Income Month-Over-Month

• Personal Income: -0.1 percent

• Real Personal Income: -0.4 percent

• Real Disposable Personal Income: -0.5 percent

• Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers: -0.4 percent

Those are horrid numbers. Click above for more discussion.

Reader Comment

A reader asked, “Did you post articles like this during the Biden Administration?” He sarcastically added, “I’m sure you did”.

Well, yes, I did.

I replied Why don’t you search my blog for “Biden Inflation” without the quotes and see for yourself.

There was no reply back, confirming what I expected was a troll question.

Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates

On March 17, 2026, I noted Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates

Nothing changed for the better today.

Finally, on March 30, 2026, I noted Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits

Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.

Powell’s warning was aimed straight at Trump.

But when year-over-year inflation surges for the next two months, what will he will do about it?