If the news in the housing sector this morning was bad, the news from the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, was quite good.
Total production rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Manufacturing production rose 0.7%, and is below its April peak by only -0.1%:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Barring downward revisions, this, together with the latest blockbuster employment report, makes it *very* unlikely that the US was in recession as of July.
This is further shown by the YoY% changes in each. Currently, total production is up 3.9% and manufacturing production is up 3.2%. Typically recessions have started from much weaker comparisons, although 1973 (oil embargo) and 2008 (housing collapse) did start from similar YoY comparisons:
(Click on image to enlarge)
With oil and gas prices continued to decline in the past few weeks, I do not see any such sudden downdraft in the immediate present.
More By This Author:
Housing Affordability: At Or Near The Worst This MillenniumJuly Consumer Inflation: A Tale Of Two Disparate Trends
Previewing July CPI: Good News And Bad News About Gas, Housing, And Vehicle Prices
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