Housing Remains In The Gutter, But Mortgage Rates Are Creeping Back Up

The Wells Fargo Housing Market Index details remain severely depressed.

Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) details for March 2026.

Signs of Market Cooling

The latest HMI survey revealed that 37% of builders cut prices in March, up slightly from 36% in February.

The average price reduction remained stable at 6%.

The use of sales incentives was 64% in March, down one percentage point from February, and marking the 12th consecutive month this share has exceeded 60%.

NAHB Key Findings

• Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.

• Sales expectations in the next six months gained two points to 49.

• Traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point increase to 25.

NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Index vs Mortgage Rates

NAHB traffic and the overall index remain in the gutter despite falling mortgage rates.

The NAHB report is through March, mortgage rates are Freddie Mac through February.

I use Freddie Mac because the St. Louis Fed (FRED) has a data feed.

But Freddie Mac is delayed and not as accurate as Mortgage News Daily. MND includes points and fees in its data.

Mortgage Rates Highest in Six Months

After falling to 6.0 percent, the MND average 30-year rate shot up to 6.41 percent yesterday. It’s now 6.36 percent.

Don’t expect housing to contribute anything to GDP in the first quarter of 2026.

The expected commerce department release of Housing Starts and Permits, due out today has been postponed.

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