Fund-Flows For Fiscal-2025 Q1, And For The Month Of December

The month of December, 2024 compared to December, 2023:

Type of Flow	2024	2023
Net-transfer (daily average)	+$62B	+$63B
Nominal-spending (daily average)	$584B	$541B
Change in bank credit	+48B	+$109B

The net money-creation was lower this December than December 2023 (+$117B compared to +$178B). This was due to last December's bank credit increase (chart below).

The fiscal-2025 Q1, compared to the fiscal-2024 Q1:

Type of Flow	Fiscal-2025	Fiscal-2024
Net-transfer (annualized)	+$620B (+$2,481B)	+$394B (+1,576B)
Nominal-spending (annualized)	$1,891B ($7,564B)	$1,676B ($6,704B)
Change in bank credit	+$214B	+$231B

Compared to fiscal-2024 Q1:

The Treasury net-transfer is $226B higher than in fiscal-2024. (Nominal-spending is $215B higher.)
The change in bank credit is $17B lower than last year.
The Fed's IOR (interest on reserves) has paid $16.6B so far, which is $10B lower than last year (it was $26.4B last year).
Total net money-creation is +$199B more than last year which continues to explain the SPX rally, but which has been decreasing during the month of December.

The average net-transfer (from the Treasury to the private sector) is decreasing according to the seasonal pattern (pink arrows inside the blue boxes). This tendency (lower net-transfer) should last until the mid-January tax-take. The SPX is likely to be in a trading-range until then.