Forecasts For the Weeks Of June 13 And 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 13

June 14

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - May

93.6

93.6

93.5

Retail Sales - May

0.5%

1.3

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.8

0.4

Export Prices -  May

0.2%

0.5

0.2

Import Prices

0.9

0.3

0.8

Business Inventories - April

0.2%

0.4

0.2

June 15

Producer Price Index - May

0.4%

0.2

0.3

PPI Core

0.2

0.3

0.2

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-9.02

-3.5

Industrial Production - May

-0.1%

0.7

-0.1

Capacity Utilization

75.3

75.4

75.2

FMOC

0.375%

0.375

0.375

June 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

270K

264

269

Consumer Price Index - May

0.4%

0.4

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

1.4

-1.8

0.8

Current Account - Q1

-$125.0B

-125.3

-124.7

NAHB Index - June

59

58.0

59

June 17

Housing Starts - May

1.18M

1.172

1.150

Building Permits

1.150

1.116

1.150

Week of June 20

June 22

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.8%

0.7

Existing Home Sales - May

5.600M

5.450

5.500

June 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.20

0.10

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

50.3

50.5

New Home Sales - May

540K

619

566

Leading Indicators

0.2%

0.6

0.2

June 24

Durable Goods Sales - May

-2.4%

3.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

94.5

94.3

94.3