FOMC Statement
Press Release: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
Central Tendencies
Fed Funds Rate 2026: 3.6–4.1 percent up from 3.1–3.6
Fed Funds Rate 2027: 3.1–3.9 percent up from 2.9–3.6
PCE Inflation 2026: 3.5–3.7 percent up from 2.6–3.1
PCE Inflation 2027: 2.2–2.5 percent up from 2.0–2.3
PCE Core Inflation 2026: 3.2–3.5 percent up from 2.5–2.8
PCE Core Inflation 2027: 2.3–2.6 percent up from 2.0–2.4
More Hikes
The central tendency is a half-point higher on the low and top end from the March forecast.
Powell did not vote on the projections
FOMC Press Conference
The Fed expects more inflation and so do I, barring a demand collapse due to recession.
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