Existing-Home Sales Plunge The Most Since November 2022. The Weather?

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NAR Blames the Weather

The National Association of Realtors notes Disappointing Existing-Home Sales in January.

“The decrease in sales is disappointing. The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022. This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”

Is Plunge Weather Related?

December was mild. January wasn’t.

I don’t recall anyone blaming good weather for the good December statistics.

That said, existing-home sales are recorded at closing, not purchase time. January sales mostly represent sales made in December.

Key January 2026 Statistics

Sales Month-Over Month: 8.4% decrease in existing-home sales—seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million in January
Inventory Month-Over-Month: 0.8% decrease in unsold inventory—1.22 million units equal to 3.7 months’ supply
Sales Year-Over-Year: 4.4% decrease in existing-home sales
Median existing-home price: $396,800 for all housing types, up 0.9% from one year ago ($393,400) – the 31st consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
Market Time: 46 days, median time on market for properties, up from 39 days last month and 41 days in January 2025.

Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago

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Existing-home sales Median Sales Price

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The string of 31 consecutive year-over-year increases in median price is poised to break next month if there is any further decline in price.

January typically marks the bottom. Nonetheless, my guess is the streak ends.

Existing-Home Sales Supply

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The seasonality in many of these charts is obvious. It would be smart for the NAR to seasonally adjust these numbers, but they don’t.

This makes month-over-month comparisons difficult.

Existing-Home Sales vs Mortgage Rates

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The Mirage of Improving Affordability

This is the key chart.

The average mortgage rate has declined from 7.62 percent in October of 2023 to 6.10 percent in January of 2026. That’s a decline of 1.52 percentage points.

Existing home sales essentially flatlined the entire time with minor bounces that never lasted.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was a continual cheerleader as rates fell. But homes did not get more affordable, and still aren’t affordable.

Rising home prices, property taxes, maintenance costs, and especially home owners insurance chewed up any decline in mortgage rates.

Median Price

What does one get for these rising median price? Are lot sizes getting bigger? More rooms? Better schools? Anything?

Median price is a flawed statistic because it doe not address any of those questions. The Case-Shiller price index does.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise Again, 10-City Index Ties Record High

On December 30, I noted Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise Again, 10-City Index Ties Record High

Hello. Let’s discuss affordability again.

Existing Home Sales

Existing-Home sales have been flat since October of 2022 at roughly 4,000,000 annualized sales for three full years. Only price insensitive buyers have been buying.

Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”

On January 30, Trump made some economically illiterate comments sure to displease anyone struggling to buy a home.

Please consider Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”