Eurozone October Inflation Brings ECB Closer To December Hike

Eurozone inflation rose to 4.0% in October, bolstering the case for a December ECB rate hike.

Eurozone headline inflation increased to 4.0% year-on-year, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to hike rates again in December.

Eurozone headline inflation rose in October though core inflation remained muted.

According to the just-released flash estimate, eurozone headline inflation came in at 4.0% year-on-year in October, from 3.8% YoY in September, the highest level in three years. Core inflation, however, remained muted and unchanged at 2.5%, signaling limited spillover from higher energy prices to the rest of the economy.

Looking ahead, the path of headline inflation remains highly affected by the war in the Middle East and oil prices. On top of this, the start of the winter heating season, combined with low gas storage levels, is also likely to push up gas prices in the coming weeks, translating into higher retail prices at the start of next year. Selling price expectations both in the manufacturing and services sectors have increased again recently but are still below their April and May levels. As a result, we expect things to get worse before they get better.

As worrisome as this might sound, the current inflation picture remains structurally different from the inflation wave in 2022. Consumers’ willingness and financial ability to pay higher prices are both much lower than in 2022. As a result, it will be hard for companies to pass through higher production costs. Instead, margin compression will be the name of the game.

For the ECB, today’s inflation print actually provides both hawkish and dovish arguments. Headline inflation is clearly higher than in the ECB’s baseline scenario from September, strengthening the case for another rate hike. At the same time, subdued core inflation points to very limited pass-through from higher energy prices to the rest of the economy and argues against overly aggressive hikes. Given ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at last week’s press conference and the fact the ‘direction of travel is clear’, today’s inflation numbers have brought the central bank one step closer to a December rate hike. Muted underlying inflationary pressure, at the same time, confirms our view that the December hike could also be the last one.

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