EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair Stabilizes Below 20-day SMA, Sharp Weekly Decline

By Patricio Martín of FX Street

Where Forex Never Rests • Feb 28, 2025 at 3:29 PM EST

EUR/USD posts mild movements after a volatile week, bouncing slightly after recent sharp losses.

10 and one 10 us dollar bill

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EUR/USD closed the week with a slight recovery but remains in a vulnerable position after failing to sustain gains above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair faced a decisive rejection at this level, which now appears to be converging with the 20-day SMA, increasing the likelihood of a bearish crossover.

Despite this downside pressure, by the end of the week, the pair stabilized just below the 20-day SMA, limiting further downside momentum. However, technical signals remain cautious, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in negative territory but flat, suggesting a temporary pause in the bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showed a fresh red bar, indicating the presence of selling pressure.

Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at the 20-day SMA, which needs to be reclaimed for a sustained recovery. A break above this level could expose the 100-day SMA once again. On the downside, support is located at 1.0380, followed by 1.0350, a key level that could determine the next directional move.

EUR/USD daily chart

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