Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 2 And 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 2

September 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - August

50.0

49.9

49.9

ISM (Mfg) - August

51.3

51.2

51.0

Construction Spending - July

0.3

-1.3

0.3

Auto Sales* - August

17M

16.8

16.9

Car Sales

4.7

4.7

Truck Sales

12.3

12.2

September 4

International Trade - July

-$53.3B

-55.2

-53.5

September 5

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

215

215

ADP Employment Report - August

155K

156

150

Productivity - Q2 (r)

2.2%

2.3

2.2

Unit Labor Costs

2.5

2.4

2.4

PMI Services Index - August

50.9

50.9

50.9

ISM Services - August

53.8

53.7

54.0

Factory Orders - June

1.1%

0.7

1.0

Durable Goods Orders

2.1

1.9

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.0

-0.5

September 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - August

165K

164

158

Private

155

148

148

Manufacturing

8

16.0

8

Unemployment

3.6%

3.7

3.7

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.3

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Week of September 9

September 9

Consumer Credit - July

$16.0B

14.6

September 10

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - August

103.5

104.7

JOLTS - July

7.311M

7.348

September 11

Producer Price Index - August

0.1%

0.1

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.2

Wholesale Inventories - July

0.2%

0.2

September 12

Consumer Price Index - August

0.1%

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.3

Treasury Budget - August

-$161.0B

-119.7

September 13

Retail Sales - August

0.3%

0.7

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

1.0

Export Prices - August

-0.5%

0.2

Import Prices

-0.5%

0.2

Import Prices, ex-Petroleum

-0.2%

0.0

Business Inventories - July

0.2%

0.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p)

90.0

89.4