Economic Data Forecasts for the Weeks of November 11 and 18

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 11

November 12

NFIB

101.8

101.8

102.0

November 13

Consumer Price Index - October

0.3%

0.0

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Treasury Budget - October

-$120.0B

82.8

-131.1

November 14

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

211

215

Producer Price Index - October

0.3%

-0.3

0.3

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

-0.3

November 15

Retail Sales - October

0.3%

-0.3

0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

-0.1

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.3

0.0

0.3

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

4.0

5.0

Export Prices - October

-0.1%

-0.2

-0.1

Import Prices

-0.5

0.2

-0.2

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.1

-0.1

Industrial Production - October

-0.2%

-0.4

-0.4

Capacity Utilization

77.3

77.5

77.1

Manufacturing

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

Business Inventories - September

0.1%

0.0

0.1

Week of November 18

November 19

Housing Starts - October

1.280M

1.256

Building Permits

1.385

1.391

NAHB Index

70

71

November 21

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

211

Philadelphia Fed Survey

8.0

5.6

Existing Home Sales - October

5.490M

5.380

Leading Indicators

0.0%

-0.1

November 22

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Nov(r)

95.7

95.7