Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 23 And 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 23

January 23

Leading Indicators

-0.7%

-1.0

-0.7

January 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January

46.0

46.2

46.2

PMI Services Flash Index - January

45.5

45.0

45.0

Consumer Confidence - January 

107.8

108.3

Richmond Fed Index

-3

1

January 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

205K

190

205

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.7%

3.2

2.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

Durable Goods Orders - December

2.7%

-2.1

2.6

International Trade in Goods (a) - December

-$89.0B

-83.3

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.5%

1.0

New Home Sales - December

615K

640

614

January 27

Personal Income - December

0.3%

0.4

0.2

Personal Spending

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

64.6

64.6

64.6

Pending Home Sales - December 

74.2

73.9

73.2

Week of  January 30

January 30

Dallas Fed Indes - January

-15

-18.8

January 31

Employment Cost Index - Q4

1.2%

1.2

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

5.2

5.0

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

-0.8%

-0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

-0.5

-0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

6.8

8.6

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

-0.5%

0.0

Chicago PMI - January

45.5

44.9

Consumer Confidence Index - January 

108.3

108.3

February 1

ADP Employment Survey - January

170K

235

ISM (Mfg) - January

48.1

48.4

Construction Spending - December

-0.4%

0.2

JOLTS - December

10.300M

10.458

Auto Sales - January

14.5M

13.3

Car Sales

3.2

2.8

Truck Sales

11.3

10.6

FMOC

4.63%

4.375

February 2

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

2.5%

0.8

Unit Labor Cost

1.5

2.4

Factory Orders - December

1.5%

-1.8

Durable Goods Orders

2.7

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.4

-1.4

February 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - January 

190K

223

Private

170

220

Manufacturing

15

8.0

Unemployment

3.6%

3.5

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.3

ISM Services - January

50.7

49.6