Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 12 And 19


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of February 12
February 12
Treasury Budget - January	-20.5B	-129.4	-21.0

February 13
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January	92.9	91.9

Consumer Price Index - January	0.2%	0.3	0.2
Core CPI	0.3	0.3	0.3

February 15
Initial Unemployment Claims	218K	218	220

Retail Sales - January	0.2%	0.6	-0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.4	0.4	0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas	0.5	0.6

Philadelphia Fed Survey	-10.0	-10.6	-8.0
NY Fed Manufacturing Index	-20.2	-43.7	-15.0

Export Prices - January	-0.2%	-1.6	-0.1
Import Prices	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum	-0.2	0.0

Industrial Production - January	0.4%	0.1	0.3
Manufacturing Output	0.0	0.1	0.0
Capacity Utilization	78.9	78.6	78.8

Business Iinventories - December	0.4%	-0.1	0.4
NAHB Index - February	46	44	46

February 16
Producer Price Index - January	0.2%	-0.1	0.1
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)	0.2	0.2

Housing Starts - January	1.490M	1.460	1.470
Building Permits	1.520	1.495	1.515

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)	78.0	79.0	80.0

Week of February 19
February 20
Leading Indicators - January	-0.3%	-0.1

February 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.25	-0.15

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	50.0	50.7
PMI Services Flash Index	51.5	52.5

Existing Home Sales - January	3.970M	3.78

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